Written by Lucas Themelis
With Charles Oliveira's victory over Michael Chandler at UFC 262 to become the 11th champion in the history of the lightweight division, we usher in a new era in the UFC. With former champion Khabib Nurmagomedov expected to enjoy retirement with no plans to return, there is a litany of great battles to be had over the title. These are the fights to book within the divisional top ten moving forward.
As arguably the most stacked division in the UFC, there are several options for what fights should come next. With the current number one contender Dustin Poirier taking on the fifth-ranked Conor McGregor at UFC 264 in a highly anticipated rubber match, this looks likely to produce the next title challenger, the winner earning a shot at becoming the twelfth champion in the history of the division.
However, with UFC 264 happening in July, the timeline for Porier and McGregor to get the first title opportunity may not be viable if Oliveira does not want to wait. If this is the case, the 2nd-ranked contender Justin Gaethje should be available to fight at nearly any date the champion desires.
Some fans believe Gaethje is deserving of a title shot currently, considering his last bout was a unification bout with Khabib as the interim champion. Gaethje would lose that fight by 2nd round submission, but everyone else to cross paths with Khabib also met a similar fate. If Dana agrees with this point of view, it is likely fans will not have to wait too long for the first title defense in the reign of Charles Oliveira.
On the contrary, if one more victory is needed for Gaethje to earn another crack at gold, third-ranked Beneil Dariush is the fight to make.
Dariush just earned a unanimous decision victory over former interim champion Tony Ferguson, putting Ferguson on a three-fight losing streak started by Justin. Dariush, a former world no-gi champion in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, has transferred his tremendous ground skills over to mixed martial arts competition at the highest level, controlling the majority of his fight with Tony on the ground where he would score 12-plus minutes of control time and nearly submit “El Cucuy” with a devastating heel hook towards the end of the 2nd round.
Dariush, also a black belt in Muay Thai under world-renowned coach Rafael Cordeiro of Kings MMA, boasts five incredible knockout victories, two of which coming back-to-back in 2020 as part of his current seven-fight win streak.
On the other hand, Justin is one of the most explosive and high-intensity fighters on the whole UFC roster, with an incredible 19 knockouts in his 22 victories, good for an 86% knockout rate. You always know what you are going to get with Gaethje, the first fighter to earn a post-fight bonus in each of their first seven fights within the UFC, earning nine in total.
Alongside being a serious knockout artist, Gaethje has a tremendous wrestling pedigree dating back to his high school days, which saw him named an NCAA Division 1 All-American in 2010 out of Northern Colorado.
This fight would cause fireworks and show the fans if Dariush is truly worthy of his top-three spot, considering his only victory over a top-10 competitor was against a declining Tony. This bout would secure the victor a future title opportunity.
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Assuming that the winner between Dustin and Conor at UFC 264 faces Oliveira first for the title, who would the loser fight? Fourth-ranked Michael Chandler is your answer. Chandler seems open to fighting anyone, and a big name like Conor or Dustin would be just icing on the cake for him.
Whether it be Conor or Dustin, this fight is likely to end in a knockout finish. Conor and Dustin both sit in the upper echelon of boxers in MMA, while Chandler himself is a well-rounded, high-energy fighter who can get the job done on the ground or in the standup. If Conor were to lose against Dustin, it would be interesting to see how he would handle the pressure that Chandler brings with his counter striking. If it is Dustin who fights Chandler, it will be interesting how willing he is to engage in a grappling battle, as it is fair to say the skill and experience on the ground are in favor of Chandler.
After breaking down the top five, it is now critical to dive into the lower half of the rankings. For starters, Islam Makhachev deserves a top-10 opponent, and there is no one better for him than Tony Ferguson. Tony being on a losing streak will certainly draw a lower-ranked opponent next time out.
Aside from making sense on paper, this is still the closest thing we will get to ever seeing Tony vs. Khabib. Though Tony ha has not seemed like his old self as of late who was once the boogeyman of the division with 12 wins over six years, this would either prove if Tony can still hang with the top-tier guys or usher Islam into the title picture, raising the stock of the Khabib protege significantly.
Another bout for Tony could be a rematch with Donald Cerrone. This fight would be enjoyable and would almost certainly offer a straight stand-up battle, however, the loser would most likely end up retiring, which would be a sad day for all MMA fans, and I do not want that day to come yet. Dana White did confirm that if Cerrone loses one more fight, he is done in the UFC. This could still happen though, as Tony has been out-grappled his last two fights and it is likely Cerrone would not look to take it to the ground.
Out of the top 10, this leaves former champion Rafael Dos Anjos, Dan Hooker, and Paul Felder ranked, who rank 7-9 in that respective order. Hooker and Felder have met before, providing an absolute banger of a fight that ended in a controversial split decision win for Hooker. If these two were to run it back in 2021, it is doubtful anyone would object.
Likewise, Felder has also fought RDA, albeit more recently. Felder would step in on just five days notice for Islam Makhachev, ending a temporary retirement. He would lose by split decision, another highly questionable judging farce that even Felder gawked at, as the stats would show a comfortable win for Dos Anjos.
Considering just these facts, the most logical fight between these three would be RDA vs. Hooker and the reasoning is simple: we have yet to see it. However, it is unclear how much time Hooker will need to re-enter the octagon, though he has had several months to recoup from his knockout loss to Michael Chandler in January.
This currently leaves one fighter out of the top 10 actions, and I would not expect it to be RDA. Felder's lack of a fight comes from wanting a more prominent name with a bigger number next to it; RDA fits that description better than Hooker. And as mentioned before, it is unclear how much time Hooker needs or wants to recover, leaving him out of the mix.
Of course, with just one fight these rankings have the potential for quite some movement, which makes it the most exhilarating division in the sport today.
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