Written by Lucas Themelis
With Jon Jones recently sending out a string of tweets to strongly suggest he will not make his return to the octagon until this time next year, fans will have to wait for the super-fight between him and heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou. With the UFC moving forward with Derrick Lewis as Ngannou’s first title defense and the winner getting Stipe Miocic, how would the potential fight between Jones and Ngannou play out?
Francis Ngannou is in the finalizing stages to take on Derick Lewis on August 7th at UFC 265, in a rematch of one of the more underwhelming fights in the company’s history, something both men surely look to correct the second time around.
For a while now, especially with the contract disputes with Jon Jones, Dana White has been saying that Lewis was the fight to make. Dana would proceed to show interest in booking a number one contender fight between former heavyweight champ Stipe Miocic and Jones, but Jones would reject the notion of not returning with gold on the line. This would prompt Dana to proclaim Stipe the recipient of the winner of Ngannou vs. Lewis.
As the victor of this battle will most likely fight Stipe Miocic near the end of the year or early in 2022, Jones will hopefully make his highly anticipated heavyweight debut no later than next summer. Though he may have faltered from his past dominance in recent memory, I favor his chances to potentially become the UFC heavyweight champion next year.
It is also my prediction that the current champion Francis Ngannou will defend his title against the imposing competitors seeking to take it from him. With this being said, I will articulate how I believe the eventual super-fight between Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones will play out.
Firstly, it is vital to evaluate how the two athletes stack up on paper. Jon Jones has undoubtedly proven himself more with a professional career spanning 28 fights since 2008 with 22 fights inside the UFC octagon, whereas Ngannou has 19 fights of total MMA experience since 2013 with 13 fights in the UFC.
It is worth noting that 68% (15 of 22) of Jones’ UFC fights were for titles in comparison to just 15% (2 of 13) of Ngannou’s in the promotion. Jones has not made a non-title appearance since February 2011, 2 ½ years before Ngannou’s MMA debut.
When speaking of experience, it is also important to note that most of Ngannou’s fights ended within the first round, with only one fight going a total championship distance of five rounds and his next going the three-round distance, fittingly the only losses of his UFC career. Jones also has his fair share of first-round finishes, however, he also has experience when treading into the deep waters of the championship rounds and winning, unlike Ngannou.
Despite the large gap in experience and knowledge to favor Jones, he is also the younger fighter by a year, currently at age 33, whereas Ngannou is 34. Both men stand at 6ft 4in, though Jones sprouts a 1.5-inch advantage in reach at 84.5in. Both men have 16 finishes on their record. Ngannou utilizes his freakish power, which has been said to be equivalent to getting hit by a full-speed Ford Escort, has earned 12 knockout victories, even notching four submissions early in his career.
Jones has ten wins via knockout and six through submission. Though, he also has ten wins through decision, whereas Ngannou has none. Lastly, though Jones technically holds a loss on his record, he has never legitimately lost a fight in his career, as Jones was disqualified early in his career for illegal 12-6 elbow strikes to Matt Hamill in a fight he had clearly been winning. Many fans feel as if Dominick Reyes should have gotten the nod on the judge scorecards in their fight, but Jones won despite the controversy. As for Francis, he has been defeated three times, all via unanimous decision. Neither man has been finished in their career nor even been knocked down.
As I said before, I believe Jon Jones will be victorious in the eventual battle, though it is important to note that no one has one-punch knockout power quite like Ngannou and the prospect of an early finish for him is a possibility, though not one I find likely.
In my opinion, the first round will not be exhilarating. I believe Jones will feel out of his range while throwing strikes at the body and legs in an attempt to dissect Ngannou. Though it is unproven at heavyweight, Jone's cardio will likely be superior to Ngannou’s, something Jon will explore a patient approach because of. This is the round in which Jon will be in the most danger of a flush knockout because Ngannou's gas tank will be complete, but due to the reach advantage and the defensive IQ of Jones, I like his chances to make it out of the first round primarily unscathed, whereas Francis will have absorbed precise strikes to his legs and body.
The second and third rounds will be much of the same in my eyes, though I believe Jon will become more active and use his wrestling skill more in these rounds. Ngannou showed much-improved takedown defense in his rematch with Stipe, though he only stopped one attempt, and Jon's wrestling ability is arguably better than Stipe's.
These are the rounds where I believe Jon will assert his wrestling on Francis. With Jon's precise striking, high defensive IQ, and reach advantage, mixed in with his distinctive and violent wrestling style would cause a lot of problems for Francis.
I think Jones may get a submission finish in one of these rounds, most likely a choke of some sort, but even if he does not, he will dominate the rounds with precise striking and a constant search for submissions on the ground.
The fourth round is where I see Jon using a grapple heavy approach more so than rounds prior. At this point, Ngannou's gas tank will be near empty, and achieving a takedown for Jon should not be a problem. I think Jon will attack many submissions in this round attempting the finish, but most importantly, I think Jon will try to keep Francis down, not letting him get to his feet often, if at all. This will be the most dangerous round for Ngannou because the difference in energy levels will be at its highest.
In the final round, if Jon cannot get a submission and Francis is unable to get a knockout, it will be much like the first. This will be the least active round, and I wouldn't predict a fifth-round finish. At this point in the fight, Francis will have no stamina left, and it would be unfair to assume Jon will look as fresh in the fifth round as he has at light heavyweight.
I do not believe Francis will still have the power to knock him out with a single punch at this point in the night, and although that may be wishful thinking, Jon’s defensive movements are instinctual, so even with a lack of energy, he will be able to, at the least, survive to hear the final bell.
In conclusion, I see Jon using a patient approach to tire Ngannou out before upping his activity and attacking with submissions and kicks. Ngannou is, of course, dangerous to knock Jon out, but unless it is a flush connection, I do not see it happening with the reach advantage Jon possesses along with his superior championship experience, IQ, wrestling, and all-around repertoire of striking skills to his advantage.
Any fighter stepping across the cage from Francis Ngannou always has to respect his freakish power, which is cause for fear, but Jon is also a freakish athlete in his own right and one of the most skilled MMA fighters in history.
In the end, I think this fight will come down to Jon Jones asserting his technical dominance over Francis Ngannou, claiming the world title in his heavyweight debut. For now, one can only hope and look forward to this potential 2022 heavyweight championship clash.
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